Share price

Share Price

The share price represents the USDC value of each vault share. It fluctuates based on the vault’s performance and is the key metric for LP returns.

How Share Price Works

When you deposit USDC, you receive shares based on the current share price:

Shares Received = Deposit Amount / Share Price

When you withdraw, your shares are redeemed at the current price:

USDC Received = Shares × Share Price

Share Price Calculation

The share price is calculated in real-time:

Share Price = LP Equity / Total Shares

Where:
LP Equity = Total Assets - Net Risk - Held Stakes

Components

Component	Description
Total Assets	USDC in vault + Aave deposits
Net Risk	Probability-weighted expected payout to bettors
Held Stakes	Counter parlay stakes (held but excluded from LP equity)
Total Shares	All outstanding LP shares

What Moves Share Price?

Increases Share Price

• Fees collected from bets
• Bettors losing (favorable P&L)
• Aave yield accrual

Decreases Share Price

• Large payouts to winners
• Unfavorable P&L

Neutral Events

These do NOT change share price:

• New LP deposits (receive shares at current price)
• LP withdrawals (redeem at current price)
• Bet placement (assets and liabilities change equally)

Mark-to-Market (MTM) Valuation

The vault uses real-time probability-weighted valuation:

Expected Payout = Σ (Position Payout × Current Probability)
Net Risk = Total Liabilities - Expected Payout

This means:

• If odds shift in favor of bettors → Net Risk increases → Share price drops
• If odds shift against bettors → Net Risk decreases → Share price rises

Share price updates continuously based on live odds feeds, not just when bets settle.

Example

Scenario: $1,000,000 vault with 1,000,000 shares

Initial state:

• Share price: $1.00
• Total assets: $1,000,000
• Net risk: $0

After a day of betting:

• Fees collected: $3,000
• Net favorable P&L: $2,000
• New total assets: $1,005,000

New share price:

$1,005,000 / 1,000,000 = $1.005

LPs earned 0.5% return that day.

Checking Share Price

On the LP page, you can see:

• Current Share Price - Real-time value
• Your Shares - How many you own
• Your Value - Shares × Share Price
• Historical Performance - Share price over time

Important Considerations

Share price can decrease if bettors win big. LP returns are not guaranteed and depend on overall betting outcomes.

Timing Deposits/Withdrawals

• Deposit when share price is stable or you believe the vault will profit
• Withdraw when you want to lock in gains or reduce exposure
• Share price at transaction time determines your rate

Long-Term View

Over time, the fee structure and house edge typically favor LPs:

• 0.3% base fee on all volume
• Dynamic fees that scale with risk
• Diversification across thousands of markets

However, short-term variance from large winners can cause temporary drawdowns.